Ammonia’s Future at a Turning Point in 2025
The shipping industry has been watching the dual-fuel engine choices made for newbuildings as an indicator of what many see as an uncertain fuel future.
In December, DNV’s Alternative Fuels Insights platform counted 27 ammonia and 322 methanol-fueled vessels currently on the orderbooks.
Methanol has raced ahead of ammonia, which currently lags in both engine and regulatory development.
As the years tick by, 2025 is here and 2030 is rapidly approaching, eyes are now turning to the existing fleet – to the potential for engine retrofits.
Again, methanol is ahead of ammonia. The high-profile retrofit of the Maersk Halifax to a dual-fuel methanol vessel last year led Maersk to pre-orderthe conversion of an additional 10 vessels.
Also last year, Hapag-Lloyd and Seaspan Corporation announced plans to retrofit five container ships to dual-fuel methanol for a total investment of around $120 million.
It’s not just the internationally trading fleet acting on retrofits. Caterpillar Marine plans to offer an upgrade kit for its methanol-fueled, dual-fuel Cat 3500E series engines. In a recent interview with Rhonda Moniz, Will Watson, global product manager at Caterpillar Marine, said methanol is more diesel-like than other fuels and requires less modification than hydrogen or LNG. This makes it perfect for small ships with space limitations, like tugs.
More engine options are on the way as part of the Netherlands-based MENENS project. TNO has begun methanol testing on its one-cylinder test bench as part of the development of NIM’s methanol retrofit solution which is being designed to fit a wide variety of engine brands and types.
Still, ammonia's appeal is that it is carbon free and could be zero-emission if made from hydrogen produced with renewable electricity. It has been chosen by companies such as NYK, MOL, Berg Bulk and MISC.
And in September 2024, the world’s first ship-to-ship transfer of ammonia between vessels at anchorage in a working port environment took place. Yara hailed it as a significant step towards realizing ammonia as a shipping fuel and enabling bunkering worldwide.
Orders are increasing. In 2025, the first ammonia-fueled marine engines will be delivered, with a further surge in orders likely as the industry gains experience, says Lloyd’s Register.
Ammonia can be used directly as a fuel, cracked to produce hydrogen or blended with other fuels such as hydrogen and methane.
Still, both methanol and ammonia engines are behind LNG in the race for market share. Speaking to Greg Trauthwein in the December issue of Maritime Reporter magazine, Sameer Kalra, President, Marine, Alfa Laval, said: “Two years ago, everyone was clamoring for solutions around methanol and ammonia. But today, everyone recognizes that in the short to medium term, clean fuels, green methanol, green ammonia, are not available at scale.” The industrial supply chain behind ammonia is not ready, and the narrative has shifted back to LNG as a fuel.
“Neither I, nor you, nor anyone has this crystal ball to say which fuel is going to be the future fuel in the world,” said Kalra. “Quite possibly there will not be a one-size-fits-all (fuel solution). I don’t see ammonia going on a cruise ship which is carrying 3,000 passengers; nor do I see small product tankers going to Sandakan in Malaysia and having green methanol available in the storage tanks.”
In a recent editorial for Maritime Reporter, Robert Kunkel, President of naval architect and marine engineering firm Alternative Marine Technologies, noted that, on the larger US domestic blue water deep draft fleet, the choice continues to be LNG for recent container ship contracts and deliveries, both foreign and domestic.
“We determined early on that LNG was a transition fuel. That said, the transition period was difficult to predict and still is. With global alternative fuel infrastructure still in question, LNG will be here and available well beyond the near future,” said Kunkel.
“With the federal election and a change in the administration, many are wondering what direction the U.S. maritime sector will take as voluntary carbon credits are discussed and fossil fuels move back into the driver’s seat. We may see ammonia being discussed only on the back of a household clean agent bottle and not being burned in your internal combustion engine.”
