Mayra Ruiz, a Cuban mother, wakes up every day wondering if she will hear from her son Maiquel Gonzalez. Gonzalez vanished without a trace on December 20, 2022, along with 28 family members and friends who fled to Florida in a homemade boat. The group was desperate to leave the Caribbean island in crisis, as the United States appeared to be tightening immigration laws.

Ruiz, a mother of two, has been waiting for her son's return for nearly two years.

The 61-year old woman, who lives in Santa Clara in central Cuba, said, "We haven’t heard any good news but neither have we heard any bad news." "My mother's soul tells me that he is alive... but to not hear from him is torture."

His mother described Gonzalez as a typical Cuban youth: He was passionate about music, dance and driving a motorcycle taxi. He also dreamed of a car and a better life for his parents.

He knew that he couldn't afford to pay nearly $5,000 to fly to Nicaragua, then travel north to the U.S. Border - the migration route preferred by many Cubans. He jumped on the chance to travel by homemade boat through the Straits of Florida for less than 200 dollars.

The price was fair. Distance, less than 90 miles was much shorter. The risk was uncalculable.

According to the U.N., The Straits between Cuba and Florida in the U.S. are dangerous because of strong currents, treacherous conditions and shark-infested water.

We spoke to more than forty friends and relatives of those who died on the boat. Conversations shed light on complex calculations made by potential migrants before embarking on a life-or death journey. The conversations also show how the disappearance of some children can permanently affect their families.

The U.N. Missing Migrants Project reports that 626 migrants have died on the route between 2014 and 2016. However, cases like this one -- which were neither investigated nor recorded by regional governments or the U.N. -- suggest that the number of migrants who vanish at sea could be much higher than official counts.

Some family members and neighbors of those who died told us that preparations for a new migration were already underway as Donald Trump and Kamala Harris debated immigration policy in advance of the November 5th election. This caused fear among potential migrants that the U.S. might again tighten entry requirements.

U.N. has recorded an increase of nearly 20% in the number of dead or missing migrants on traditional Caribbean migration routes as early as September 13. The U.N. Project classifies the 29-person missing boat as an "invisible shipwreck", where a vessel goes missing and the people aboard it disappear. Neither authorities, media nor family members can tell for certain what happened to them.

This phenomenon is also seen in refugee hotspots around the world, such as the Mediterranean Sea and the coast of West Africa.

The names and birthdates of those on the boat were given to the migration authorities of the United States, Cuba, and the Bahamas. The U.S. and Bahamian governments had no information about the whereabouts of the boat, nor had they conducted an extensive investigation into its disappearance. Local authorities in the small town of Palma Sola where the boat vanished conducted a search for a week but found nothing.

Ruiz, in a state of tears, said during an interview on a farm just a few miles from the place where her son vanished, "It was not just one person. It was massive." "It is cruel, but governments do not give us any answers."

BAD LUCK

U.N. experts claim that 2022 will be remembered as the deadliest year ever for migrants in the Caribbean.

As the Biden administration was preparing to implement its parole policy by 2023, word spread in Cuba about a U.S. crackdown looming on illegal migration via land and sea.

Cubans and those from Nicaragua or Venezuela could enter the U.S. legally if they met certain criteria. It was accompanied by a stronger enforcement across the Florida Straits and other areas, which caused a rush of people to leave Cuba.

Trump, whose anti-immigration policy was a major part of his election platform, said that he would abolish the Biden parole programme. The program has allowed for hundreds of thousands migrants to enter the United States legally with sponsors from the U.S.

The U.N. declined comment on U.S. immigration or elections policy. Edwin Viales is a regional observer for the U.N. Missing Migrants Project. He said that many migrant deaths were the result of restrictive policies that forced people to migrate illegally.

Food, medicine, and fuel shortages had worsened by the time the doomed boat was about to leave in late 2022. This was due to a deep recession caused by the pandemic, as well as the more aggressive U.S. Sanctions under Trump, which made life in Cuba miserable for many. Desperation had set in.

Kastia Rod, a 36 year old woman who lost her brother and sister in the missing boat, said that "the clock was ticking." "If they didn’t go, they would have been turned back."

The shortest and cheapest route between the Cuban coastline and the Florida Keys was to take off from the remote and poor Palma Sola. This is where many of the disappeared were last seen.

Carlos Raul Reyes' nephew, a local fisherman with a lot of experience, was part of the group. The homemade boat or "balsa" seemed to be a success. It was nearly 30 feet (9 m) long, made from solid wood planks and had 16 floating tanks (repurposed gascans) on each side. A bus engine powered it.

He said that bad luck had struck very early. He said that the crew had to return to retrieve a bottle of engine oil they forgot. This cost them a whole day and their precious clear-weather window.

A storm was approaching. The wind changed direction from south to north. It brought with it waves up to 10 feet high, sheets of rain, and an unseasonably bitter chill.

Reyes said that if the crew hadnt turned back, they would have been safe. However, when he searched for their bodies, he found only familiar clothing and some rice spilled where they had camped prior to departing. The conditions became very bad.

One of the crew members called home on December 26, 2022 to assure family that they were fine.

It was the last time anyone heard from them.

DEAD ENDS

Family members remember that anxiety turned into panic a week or so after the initial departure of the boat.

The family alerted police in nearby Marti on January 6, 2023. This was less than two week after the boat had left. Family members reported that local authorities and fishermen searched the area but found nothing.

Kastia Rodriquez, whose brother was missing and whose sister had also been reported missing, was advised by officials from Cuba's Foreign Ministry to keep an eye out for migrants returning to Havana via charter flights after being detained in the Bahamas.

Her siblings never materialized. In the months that followed, reports began to surface of mysterious calls coming from the U.S. and a later-retracted sighting of one of those young men on the boat in Fort Lauderdale.

Many family members and friends believe that the migrants are being held in the Bahamas or the United States.

Some people now admit, albeit reluctantly, their loved ones could have drowned.

"The ocean is a traitor, and the weather was bad." Luis del Sol Vasquez's 69-year-old son, who was on the boat, said that they might have been shipwrecked but, where is the proof? The boat disappeared from Palma Sola and left many children without a parent. This devastated the small community. Marbelia Estrada (56), lost her two children on the boat, a son and a daughter. Both had their own children. Her daughter abandoned two children when her husband left to earn money in the United States. Sosa is now caring for both children. She said that all of them are traumatized.

Estrada said, "We took them to see a psychologist." "The five-year-old often asks when Papa is coming home?" He gets sad when he doesn't get to eat.

After reviewing the list of the crew, the U.S. Coast Guard which patrols in the Straits of Florida to return illegal migrants to their countries of origin, said "this migrant journey does not match any case".

The case was not recorded by either U.S. Customs and Border Patrol or U.S. Customs and Immigration Enforcement.

William Pratt is the Bahamas' top immigration official. He told an email "none" of the names provided appeared in their Detainee Management System.

"HORROR SHOW"

Demographers claim that this exodus is unique, as it has no parallels other than war. It is not slowing down, especially since a new U.S. measure to further restrict illegal immigration may be on the horizon no matter which candidate wins in November.

Cuban government, which has blamed U.S. Sanctions for decades on its economy's tanking and migration, is now taking note. The issue of migration is now a major focus of the U.S. election campaign, unlike any other time in the past 25 years.

This is a warning to potential migrants who may try to enter the United States more quickly, before the election. They often resort to irregular migration movements.

Alain Molina from Coralillo in the nearby coastal city, who survived a shipwreck aboard a balsa bound for the U.S. in December 2022 said that he believes another wave of emigration is imminent as the island’s communist-run economic system flounders.

People are already preparing. "Everyone is talking about this," Molina said. He said he had been offered a place on a boat but declined.

It's about to start again any minute." (Reporting and editing by Christian Plumb, Daniel Flynn, and Daniel Plumb; Additional reporting by Alexandre Meneghini in Palma Sola and Alien Fernandez, Jasper Ward, Ted Hesson, and Mica Rosenberg, in New York and Washington, and Mica Roseberg, in New York.

(source: Reuters)