Top Five Maritime Threats Across the Gulf - Windward

Windward intelligence report highlights tanker and tug attacks, threats to subsea cables, an emerging oil spill and a sanctioned Russian tanker testing U.S. naval restrictions.

Maritime security risks across the Strait of Hormuz, Arabian Gulf and Gulf of Oman are expanding beyond attacks on commercial tankers, with threats now extending to subsea communications infrastructure, offshore support vessels and coastal facilities. An October 22 intelligence report from Windward Maritime identifies five developments that illustrate the widening scope of the conflict and its implications for commercial shipping, energy transportation and regional infrastructure.

Iran Threatens Subsea Communications Cables

Iran's Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) has identified subsea internet cables crossing the Strait of Hormuz as potential targets. On October 19, IRGC spokesman Hossein Mohebbi warned that new targets and weapons would be unveiled, citing seven major communications cables beneath the strait.

Windward identifies six operational cable systems crossing Hormuz, with additional systems scheduled for 2027.  Iraq, Kuwait, Bahrain and Qatar are particularly vulnerable because their subsea communications routes to markets outside the Gulf pass through the strait.

For Iraq, the vulnerability is compounded by all three operational cables landing at Al Faw.  Disruptions could affect regional communications infrastructure well beyond commercial shipping. However, Windward notes that two cable systems also connect to Iran, meaning attacks could damage Iranian connectivity.

Live subsea cable landings per country across the Arabian Gulf, Strait of Hormuz and Gulf of Oman, with countries ranked
by exposure. Source: Windward Maritime AITM Platform.

Small-Boat Attack Signals Changing Tactics

On October 16, a Liberia-flagged Suezmax tanker was likely struck by a rocket-propelled grenade fired from a small boat approximately 78 nautical miles northeast of Al Jubail, Saudi Arabia.  According to a UK Maritime Trade Operations advisory cited by Windward, the attack damaged the tanker's aft port quarter, although no casualties were reported.

The vessel continued sailing, reportedly carrying approximately 1.09 million barrels of Saudi and UAE crude bound for Kuwait. Earlier that day, another tanker was struck by an unidentified projectile nearby, prompting the safe evacuation of its crew.  Windward considers the suspected small-boat attack significant because previous incidents predominantly involved drones or projectiles concentrated around Hormuz.

The development suggests threats to shipping are extending deeper into the Gulf, potentially affecting war-risk assessments for regional port calls.

Tug Attack Threatens Gulf Oil Transfer Operations

A Netherlands-flagged tug, identified by TradeWinds as JIF Barracuda, was reportedly struck by two unidentified projectiles northeast of Khor Fakkan, UAE, on October 18. One crew member suffered minor injuries, but the tug continued its voyage. UKMTO did not attribute responsibility for the attack.

Windward identifies the incident as the second tug strike since the conflict began and the 27th maritime attack recorded during October.  The location is significant. Khor Fakkan, Fujairah and Sohar support extensive ship-to-ship crude oil transfers outside Hormuz. Windward estimates that these anchorages handled approximately 3.97 million barrels per day in transfers during October 12–14, representing roughly half the crude shipped from the Gulf of Oman during that period. Attacks on tugs threaten the support infrastructure needed to maintain tanker movements, cargo transfers and salvage operations.

Tanker Oil Leak Threatens UAE Coastline

Satellite imagery collected October 19 identified a VLCC-size tanker apparently leaking oil approximately 25 kilometers north of Umm Al Quwain.

Windward observed a slick extending approximately 1.5 km behind the vessel. Its drift modeling projected possible shoreline contamination beginning October 22, with oil potentially approaching Hamriyah Port, Ajman Port, coastal mangroves and desalination infrastructure through October 24. The company cautions that its projections do not account for cleanup operations or the leak being stopped.

Sanctioned Russian Tanker Tests U.S. Naval Line

A Russian-flagged oil and chemical tanker approached and crossed a U.S. Navy restriction line inbound to the Gulf of Oman on October 18.

According to Windward, the vessel slowed from nine knots to approximately one knot, loitered and subsequently reversed course toward the Arabian Sea on October 19. The EU- and UK-sanctioned tanker was assessed as potentially carrying approximately 65,400 barrels of naphtha.

Windward describes the movement as an apparent test of the naval restriction line, although the vessel's intended destination remains unknown. Taken together, the five developments point to an increasingly complex operating environment for shipowners, charterers and marine service providers. Beyond the direct threat to vessels, the conflict is exposing vulnerabilities in the infrastructure that supports regional trade, energy exports and maritime operations.