Maersk says Global Trade could rise 7% in 2025
Maersk expects global trade growth rising as much as 7% next year, bolstered by strong demand from the United States where a potential port strike and tariffs on foreign-made goods loom, an executive at the global carrier said on Wednesday.
"We predict anywhere between 5 and 7% (growth) overall," Charles van der Steene, regional president for North America at Maersk, told Reuters. "And at this stage, there's nothing that would indicate that it could not be the case," he said on the sidelines of the Reuters NEXT conference.
Houthi attacks on vessels in the Red Sea and "resilient" demand from U.S. companies will continue to spur consumption, he said. The United States is Maersk's largest market by sales. In October, Maersk raised its full-year profit forecast and updated its outlook for 2024 container volume. Among its customers are Walmart, Target, Asos and Nike.
On Monday, the National Retail Federation said inbound cargo traffic would notch records in November and December, due to the prospect of a dockworker strike on U.S. East Coast ports in January and tariff increases planned by President-elect Donald Trump.
"Part of it today, if you look at the strength of the market, could potentially be explained by the psychological effect (of) ... pre-ordering that is linked to either tariffs or the next version of the strike, that is now delayed until January," said van der Steene, who assumed the president's role in February.
Maersk expects the disruption in the Red Sea to continue well into 2025, he added.
To help customers plan for the future, Maersk is helping to analyze their order routes, sometimes two months ahead to determine whether it is more optimal to route to the Northeast or the West Coast or use air freight, he said. This, however, depends on the product and the risk a company is ready to take.
Rerouting a product from the East Coast to the West Coast is no small feat, due to the extra costs and time involved, but can be crucial if seasonal products are involved, he said. "We help them to define ... if you do look at your order pattern, how do we help you mitigate the risk as much as possible?"
