Greenhouse Gas Model for Shipping by 2050
DNV GL has published a report assessing the potential for greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions reduction from shipping towards 2050, based on a new computational model.
The model can evaluate various scenarios for both individual ship segments and the industry as a whole. It can also evaluate the effectiveness of various solutions for reducing GHGs.
“Despite the challenges facing our industry, we believe it is technically possible for shipping to achieve substantial GHG reductions, provided a viable strategy is developed and adopted from within the industry itself,” says Christos Chryssakis, Group Leader Energy Efficiency & Fuels at DNV GL. “But for such a strategy to be both successful and minimally disruptive, it should recognise the differences between the various shipping segments and the need to develop appropriate solutions for different ship types, sizes and types of operation.”
The objective of the new report (“Low Carbon Shipping towards 2050”) is to assess the potential for realistic GHG reductions from shipping heading to 2050, considering a variety of possible trade growth scenarios in the various ship segments.
The level of reduction will depend on the availability of the technological solutions in each segment, their reduction potential and rate of uptake. In turn, uptake will depend on the cost and expected payback of each technology, combined with the investment horizon of ship owners.
These factors are included in the model developed by DNV GL, which uses AIS data to create a fuel consumption and emissions baseline. The global fleet is divided into 47 ship segments based on vessel type and size, with fuel consumption estimated for every vessel individually. For each vessel in the fleet the model makes a cost-benefit calculation for a set of alternative fuel options and energy efficiency measures and then re-calculates the global level of fuel consumption and emissions.
“We have developed the model to be useful for many different stakeholders,” continues Christos Chryssakis. “From ship owners trying to identify optimum solutions, authorities developing strategies and supporting mechanisms for cutting emissions, through to policy makers looking for reduction strategies on a global level, the model can promote informed decision making to ensure that shipping remains the world’s largest and most environmentally friendly transport sector.”
