Asia Dry Bulk-Capesize Rates Under Pressure

Posted by Joseph Keefe May 5, 2016

Capesize rates fall in a quiet market as holidays weigh; 20 charter-free capesize ships could add to downward trend.

Freight rates for large capesize dry cargo ships on key Asian routes are set to drift lower next week unless there is an uptick in chartering activity from major miners, ship brokers said on Thursday.

"Unless there is a rush (by charterers) to the market to fix cargoes, we will not see any positive signs," a Shanghai-based capesize ship broker said on Thursday.

"I think rates can fall further - maybe 25 U.S. cents per tonne from Western Australia."

Rates from Brazil to China could drop faster to around $7.50 per tonne, the broker added.

That came as freight rates for the Brazil-China route fell to $8.31 per tonne on Wednesday from $9.02 per tonne on the same day last week.

Capesize charter rates for the Western Australia-China route slipped to $3.94 per tonne on Wednesday from $4.37 per tonne a week earlier.

Freight rates could come under added pressure as more than 20 capesize ships, which can each carry around 170,000 tonnes of iron ore or coal, will be available for charter from mid-May, the Shanghai broker said.

Capesize rates fell this week due to public holidays in Asia and Europe, which curtailed chartering business.

Eighteen new capesize charters were fixed in the week from April 28, compared with 40 for the week between April 21 and 27, data on the Reuters Eikon terminal showed.

Rio Tinto was the only one of the big four miners to fix vessels in the open spot market since April 28, chartering data on the Reuters Eikon terminal showed.

"We're coming to the end of a very quiet week," a Singapore-based capesize broker said.

This lack of activity could push rates from Western Australia to China down to $3.50 per tonne by Monday, that would be the lowest since April 1, the Singapore broker said.

"If there was a bit more cargo volume then there would have been more resistance from owners against charterers pushing rates lower," the Singapore broker added.

More charters from Brazil to China would also support freight rates because the longer voyage distance would reduce available shipping capacity, the Singapore broker said.

The journey time from Tubarao in Brazil to Qingdao is around 45 days, compared with 11 days from Port Hedland in Australia to Qingdao, shipping data showed.

Charter rates for smaller panamax vessels dropped to $4,816 per day on Wednesday for a north Pacific round-trip voyage, from $5,156 per day a week earlier.

"We do not see any immediate signs for recovery and believe this sliding tendency will continue short term," Norwegian shipbroker Fearnley said in a note on Wednesday.

Freight rates in the Far East for smaller supramax vessels were affected by public holidays, although attempts by charterers to draw the rates down were largely unsuccessful, Fearnley added.

The Baltic Exchange's main sea freight index dropped to 652 on Wednesday from 715 the same day last week.