All Eyes on China as Trump Retakes the White House

Donald Trump’s victory in the US Presidential Election is has importers on edge, fearing another spike in ocean container shipping freight rates premised on President Trump's vow on blanket tariffs of up to 20% on all imports into the US and additional tariffs of 60% to 100% on goods from China.

Data from Xeneta shows the last time that President Trump ramped up tariffs on Chinese imports during the trade war in 2018, ocean container shipping freight rates spiked more than 70%. “Shipping is a global industry feeding on international trade, so another Trump Presidency is a step in the wrong direction," say Peter Sand, Chief Analyst, Xeneta. "The knee-jerk reaction from US shippers will be to frontload imports before Trump is able to impose his new tariffs. Back in 2018, the tariff on Chinese imports was 25%, now it is increasing up to 100% so the incentive to frontload is even greater. If you have warehouse space and the goods to ship, frontloading imports is the simplest way to manage this risk in the short term – but it will bring its own problems."

Average spot rates from the Far East to US West Coast and US East Coast have remained relatively flat in the weeks leading up to the US Election, down -3.5% and -2.5% respectively since October 15, 2024.

However, the current average spot rates of $5 210 per FEU (40ft container) into the US West Coast and $5,820 per FEU into the US East Coast are 167% and 134% higher than 12 months ago, primarily due to the ongoing impact of conflict in the Red Sea.

"2024 has been a brutal year for US shippers who have already endured massive disruption due to the Red Sea crisis and spiralling freight rates," said Sand. "There is also the looming threat of further strike action at ports on the US East Coast and Gulf Coast in January next year."