Sources and shipping data indicate that China will receive approximately 3 million metric tonnes of U.S. soya beans in April-May. This is despite the new tariffs on American goods, which are set to choke off China's biggest U.S. import.

Four sources with knowledge of the matter said that the bulk of the cargoes was purchased by the state stockpiler Sinograin. They said the company would likely pay the higher duty but could still be forced to sell the beans at a lower price locally due to the competition from Brazil's cheaper beans, the largest bean producer in the world.

We don't anticipate cancellations or major issues with these loads since a government-owned company made these purchases, said one of the Singapore-based traders at an international trading firm that runs oilseed processing facilities in China.

They cannot sell U.S. beans and the duty. The duty will be their responsibility.

China is the largest soybean importer in the world, and the United States is the second largest grower. Their escalating war of trade threatens to disrupt the global flow of crops.

Sinograin buys U.S. soya beans for storage due to their lower moisture content. Sinograin has not responded to requests for comments sent via fax.

According to U.S. Census Bureau figures, the U.S. will export $12.84 billion in soybeans to China by 2024.

Early in March, China imposed 10% duties on U.S. soya imports following the announcement by U.S. president Donald Trump of a similar duty against Chinese goods.

Calculations based on Kpler's data show that more than 30 cargoes, with a total weight of around 2,000,000 tons, are expected to arrive within the next few weeks.

China responded to the U.S. tariffs imposed by April 2 with an additional 34% on all U.S. products. According to Kpler data, 15 vessels carrying 800,000 tonnes are expected to arrive in the United States after May 13, and therefore will be subject to a total tariff of 44%.

As of March 27, nearly 600,000 tons of U.S. soya beans purchased for the marketing year that ends in August 2025 still had not been shipped, according to reports and analysts from the U.S. Department of Agriculture. It is unclear whether these cargoes will ship or be cancelled.

China will import 105 million tonnes of soybeans, a record amount. Brazil's top soybean supplier is expected to export record soybeans to China during the second quarter. China will likely meet its entire demand in the coming months from Brazil, which is expected to have a record crop this year. (Reporting and editing by Christian Schmollinger; Additional reporting by Mei Mei Chu, Beijing newsroom, and Naveen Thural)

(source: Reuters)