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Ukraine raises its 2024 grain production forecast by 6.9%, to 56 million T

Posted to Maritime Reporter on June 14, 2024

Acting Minister Taras Vysotskiy announced on Friday that the Ukrainian agriculture ministry had increased its estimate for the grain harvest in 2024 to 56 millions metric tons. The previous estimate was 52.4 million tonnes.

Vysotskiy stated in a press release that the harvest could include up to 21 million tons wheat, 28.5 million tons corn, and 5 millions tons barley.

He estimated that Ukraine's July-June 2024/25 grain exports would be 43 million tonnes, which included 15 million tons wheat and 25 millions tons corn.

Vysotskiy stated that Ukraine will finish the current marketing period 2023/24 at the same level as before 2022, with ending stocks of agricultural product.

In the next marketing season, agricultural exports (of grains, oils, and oilseeds) will surpass 60 million tons. "This shows that Ukraine is a guarantee of global food safety," he said.

Vysotskiy stated that the ministry predicted harvests of oilseeds to total 22 million tonnes, including 13 millions tons of sunflower seeds and 4 million tons rapeseed, as well as a record amount of 5 million tons soybeans.

He estimated that the total exports of oilseeds, oilseed products and oilseed products will be 17 million tonnes.

The ministry did not provide any comparative numbers, but it had earlier said on Friday that Ukraine exported 48.7 millions tons of grain as of June 14, which is two weeks before 2023/24's current season ends.

In a statement made earlier this month, the minister in charge said that his ministry was working on a new strategy.

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Its harvest forecast is 52.4 million tonnes despite bad weather in early May and late June.

Scientists and weather forecasters have warned that severe frosts and a subsequent drought in many regions of Ukraine in the first half May created unfavourable conditions and could affect the harvest.

The new ministry forecast is higher than the estimates of analysts and traders.

APK-Inform consultancy

The harvest

Exports are 36.2 million tonnes. Ukrainian grain traders' union UGA

Forecast

The combined harvest of the three major grains - corn, wheat and barley – is 49.2 millions tons. Reporting by Pavel Polityuk Editing Tomaszjanowski and Peter Graff

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