While two U.S. battle groups of aircraft carriers patrolled the Indian Ocean in an effort to prevent Iran from attacking Israel and sparking major regional conflict this week, a very distinct military messaging campaign was underway at a luxury conference center in Manila.

Every year, the U.S. Indo-Pacific Command's 35th Annual Military Law and Operations Conference - which runs from August 27-30 - takes place in a new country in the area. But its appearance in Manila this week is likely not a mere coincidence.

Since the end of 2023, Philippine supply ships have been forced to navigate a maze of Chinese patrol vessels trying to prevent them from reaching the Second Thomas Shoal in dispute, where the BRP Sierra Madre, a grounded Filipino landing craft, is located.

A Filipino marine lost a thumb in June during a collision between a Chinese vessel and a Chinese naval force, which was armed with clubs and spears.

A second, perhaps even more dangerous, confrontation has recently erupted near the Sabina Shoal where the BRP Teresa Magbauna - the largest ship of the Philippine Coast Guard - has been anchored for the past four months.

In the last month, there have been at least two collisions involving Chinese patrol vessels and Philippine vessels that were resupplying the Teresa Magbauna. The Philippines has also accused Chinese planes of flying dangerously near maritime patrol planes.

The U.S. Indo-Pacific Command commander, Admiral Samuel Paparo said that the U.S. is now considering accompanying Philippine vessels to resupply the two disputed shoals - a decision Beijing would most likely see as a significant escalation.

"Escorting one vessel to another is an entirely reasonable choice within our Mutual Defence Treaty. This close alliance between us allows for this," Paparo said at a press conference held with General Romeo Brawner of the Philippines. He was referring to an 1951 treaty which commits Washington in supporting Manila if its forces are attacked by armed forces.

Officials in Washington and the Philippines suspect that Beijing intends to permanently drive Philippine forces from Second Thomas and Sabina Shoes - and ideally, this year – by making them unable to mount resupply mission.

Manila and Washington seem to be united in their belief that the Philippines shouldn't be forced to abandon any shoal.

In the past, an aircraft carrier might have been pulled from its position on the other side of the globe to display the flag in South China Sea.

In these more difficult times, U.S. efforts might be smaller. Perhaps a frigate, destroyer, or helicopters from the U.S. could be used to deliver supplies to two Filipino vessels under siege.

According to an independent U.S. Naval Institute, the U.S. amphibious assault ships Boxer and America are currently conducting exercises and operations off Japan and the Philippines respectively. Naval Institute, U.S. amphibious attack ships Boxer (left) and America (right) are currently undergoing exercises and operations near Japan and the Philippines.

The U.S. Navy currently does not possess a single aircraft carriers in Asia. This is the first time since 2001 that this has happened.

U.S. officials claim that this is a temporary situation. The USS Ronald Reagan, formerly based in Japan, is being exchanged for its sister ship, George Washington. Aside from the two carriers currently in the Middle East region, the other ships are undergoing refits or undergoing training along the Atlantic or Pacific Coasts of the United States.

Setting Precedent, Perception

The Biden administration went out of its way in order to create the impression that they would respond militarily if Taiwan were attacked. Beijing, however, would see the surrender of two Filipino outposts on the South China Sea in a broader sense as a sign of U.S. weakness.

The Philippines Coast Guard has recently been forced to abandon an resupply mission to Sabina Shoal after their vessels were aggressively intercepted by Chinese counterparts.

In the past decade, Manila's successive governments have announced periodic deals with Beijing regarding access to Second Thomas Shoal. However, confrontations soon followed.

We can't ignore such things, as they set precedents and shape perceptions," said Samuel Byers. Byers is a former Pentagon official who now works at the Center for Maritime Strategy, Washington DC. "This kind of mindset sets both the adversaries and allies."

U.S. officials believe that Chinese President Xi Jinping has not yet decided whether to invade Taiwan with military force, but has ordered the military to be ready to do so before 2027.

Byers explained that the U.S. military is overstretched due to the simultaneous crises in other parts of the world, notably the Middle East.

U.S. defense secretary Lloyd Austin ordered this week that the two U.S. aircraft carriers currently in the Middle East extend their deployments. A Pentagon spokesman described the order as a "clear message" that the U.S. is committed to the defence of Israel.

This show of force appears to have worked - Air Force General Charles Brown of the U.S. Joint Chiefs of Staff said on Wednesday that both Iran and Israel seemed to have found "off-ramps" to a face-off which had intensified after the assassination of Hamas leader Ismail Haniyeh, in Tehran, on July 31.

Washington, recognizing the need for tough decisions, has reduced the number of forces in the Red Sea it had maintained since the end of 2023. The USS Eisenhower battle group, which was tasked with destroying drones and missiles launched from Yemen by Iran's Houthi militants, spent several months doing so. The battle group spent more Tomahawk missiles in the process than the U.S. army purchased for the entire year 2023.

However, the Houthi attacks have continued. U.S. Warships are no longer in close proximity, but rather in positions where they can directly strike Iran in case of a wider war.

The Red Sea is still flooded with commercial ships. One of them, the Greek tanker MV Sounion, was reported to be ablaze this week and leaking crude oil. Salvage efforts were complicated by the threat of more attacks.

LONG TIME COMING

It was once unthinkable that the U.S. Navy would abandon its Red Sea campaign in large part.

It is not only a sign of the importance placed on deterring Iran, but it also shows that America has entered a new era.

The U.S.'s support for Europe is likely to suffer a major blow. In 2022 and 2023 U.S. carriers participated in NATO exercises, but none have done so this year. U.S. officials are becoming more blunt in their assertions that European nations must defend themselves, while Washington shifts focus to the Pacific.

Officials from the United States say that the "latticework of alliances" Washington has created in Asia is what is most important. This includes the ties between Japan, South Korea and Australia, as well as the Philippines, South Korea and the Philippines.

The confrontation between China and most of these countries has been long overdue.

In the past two decades, China built outposts and military bases on several islands that are disputed by the Philippines. One of these is Mischief Reef.

The "maritime miltia" of the Philippines has been stopping foreign vessels and boats from reaching the Scarborough Shoal dispute with its patrol and fishing boats.

In a 2016 ruling, the United Nations maritime Court in The Hague classified much of the oil- and energy rich Spratly Islands including Scarborough and Second Thomas shoals and Sabina Shoals as being part of the Philippines Exclusive Economic Zone.

China has reacted angrily to this ruling, claiming that it is the sole authority over all of South China Sea within its "nine-dash line", waters it claims have been Chinese for centuries despite other nations claiming them.

Since November 2023, Philippine Warships have conducted 10 bilateral and multinational joint patrols with the United States of America, Canada, Australia, and Japan. There is talk that they may do the same thing with France.

While such patrols may have operated in areas that are contested, it would be very different to physically accompany Filipino ships through a Chinese blockade.

It is unclear whether the Philippines would actually want to take such a step. General Brawner has in the past suggested joint patrols, but this week appeared to back away from that position.

He said, "The attitude of our armed forces is to rely first on ourselves." "We will try every option, and explore all the avenues available to us, in order to accomplish the mission ...,, in this case the resupply of our troops. When we can't do it ourselves, we will seek out other options. (By Peter Apps, edited by Mark Heinrich).

(source: Reuters)