A senior Taiwan coastguard official has said that China may find a "pretext", such as sensitive dates like the anniversary of President Lai Ching Te's first year in office, which falls on May, to hold new wargames around Taiwan.

China, which views democratically-governed Taiwan as its own territory, regularly holds exercises around the island, including one begun on Tuesday it said was to "serve as a stern warning and powerful deterrent against Taiwanese independence".

China has not given a name for these drills. However, it did give two names last year: "Joint Sword-2024A", which was held in May after Lai's induction, and "Joint Sword-2024B", in October following his National Day speech.

Hsieh Chong-chin, deputy head of the Coast Guard Administration of Taiwan, said to a small group reporters that Beijing could use "special occasions", such as diplomatic events, or incidents relating to Taiwan's sovereignty.

He said that China can either launch "Joint Sword-2025", or "de facto" war games around two dates in the year.

Hsieh noted that, in addition to the anniversary of May, there were also other events, such as October when Lai gave a keynote address on Taiwan's National Day, and August when China lifted its annual fishing ban, purportedly for the purpose of protecting fish stocks.

The Taiwan Affairs Office and the China Defence Ministry did not respond to inquiries about possible war games.

Separately, a senior Taiwanese security official said that the assessments were based upon past experiences and Chinese action. He added that China could use "excuses", this year, to hype up their "grey zone pressure" on Taiwan at those sensitive dates.

Beijing is faced with a dilemma in trying to balance its gray zone aggression towards Taiwan and avoid blowbacks internationally, said the official.

"On the one hand, they want to exert extreme pressuring on Taiwan, but on the opposite hand they must take great care not to be labelled an aggressor in international circles."

Coast guard ships are now supporting the navy to shadow Chinese warships in drills.

In the event of war, ships would be armed and the coast guard would go into action to defend against an attack by China.

Hsieh stated that Taiwan is alarmed at the recent increase in Chinese activity around the Pratas Islands. The atoll, which Taiwan controls and protects as a marine preserve, lies strategically on the upper part of the South China Sea.

Taiwan has called this "coercive harassing" by Taiwan's coast guards. China also claims Pratas as well as most of the waterway.

The media contact information for the China Coast Guard is not publicly available.

Hsieh, who outlined a new strategy for responding to China's actions in the Philippines, said that the coast guard would evaluate the Philippines' "transparency" policies to provide details about China's efforts to attract greater international attention. (Reporting and editing by Clarence Fernandez; Additional reporting provided by Beijing Newsroom.)

(source: Reuters)