Two traders say that the decline in Russia's oil imports from its western port is expected to be lower than June due to higher refinery output and Moscow's commitment to sticking to OPEC+ production cuts.

The Russian oil exports to the Black Sea and Baltic ports of Novorossiisk and Primorsk, which mainly load Urals oil, are volatile, as companies adjust their exports based on refinery runs, and the available supply.

Calculations based on industry data show that offline refining capacity decreased to 1.8 millions metric tons in July.

Reduced offline refining capability means more refinery runs, and less crude oil available for export.

Russia also committed to adhere to its production quota as per the OPEC+ Agreement and to compensate for April-May's admitted overproduction. Russia has limited resources left to increase exports.

The June oil exports are expected to be around 2 million barrels a day (bpd), which is close to the May level.

The offline Russian primary refining capability was increased by 114% compared to the previous plan, to 4.1 millions tons in June. This will allow for a large amount of crude oil exports. Traders said that actual oil loadings in western ports could be higher than planned.

Traders and calculations indicate that the revision in refining capacity is due to continued outages of Rosneft's Tuapse refinery and Komsomoslk oil company's Komsomoslk.

The main question is whether some refineries will be operational again in July. One of the traders stated that if at least one refinery is back in operation, this may have an impact on exports.

The traders stated that if the refineries stay offline, the idle capacity of refineries could increase to 3.3 millions tons, but still remain below the level in June.

One trader said that any new drone attacks on Russian oil refineries would change the level of oil exports. David Goodman, Editor and Reporter (Reporting)