Saudi Arabia and Russia, the top crude oil exporters in Asia, are boosting their cargoes for the region that is world's largest importer.

China, which is the largest oil importer in the world, has emerged as the ground zero of the two exporters who are ostensibly allied within the wider OPEC+ producer group.

Russia has overtaken Saudi Arabia to become the number one supplier of crude oil to China. This is largely due to the fact that it was forced to reduce the price of its crude as Western sanctions imposed because of the war in Ukraine reduced the number of buyers. The pool of buyers now consists mainly of China and India with only a small amount going to other countries such as Myanmar.

In the first two month of this year, Russia's seaborne shipping to China has stalled. This is partly due to new sanctions introduced on shipping by the former U.S. president Joe Biden shortly before he left office in January.

According to commodity analysts Kpler, China's seaborne exports to Russia fell to 969, 000 barrels per daily (bpd) from 1,01 million in January. This is the lowest level on a daily basis since December 20, 22.

China's seaborne exports to Russia in the first two month of this year were 990,000. This is a decrease of 270,000 bpd compared to the previous two months.

In the first two month of this year, India's imports from Russia also decreased.

According to Kpler, India's imports of Russian goods dropped to 1,43 million bpd per day in February. This is the lowest level on a daily basis since January 2023, and it was 1.63 million in January.

India imported 1,56 million barrels per day (bpd) from Russia in the first two month of 2025. This is down from the 1.63 million barrels per day that it imported the two previous months.

As traders and refiners find ways to work around the sanctions in March, both China and India will see a rebound of imports from Russia. This is in line with a recent pattern where the market has found ways to get around measures soon after they have been imposed.

According to Kpler, India's imports of Russian goods are expected to reach 1.92 million barrels per day (bpd) in March. This would be the highest level since July 2011 when 2.1 million barrels per day were imported.

China is expected to receive 973,000 bpd more in March than in February.

This figure is also likely to increase by the end the month as more cargoes will likely be assessed when they depart Russia's Pacific port for China. The trip usually takes a week.

SAUDI MOVES

Kpler tracked 1,64 million bpd in arrivals for China during March.

This is the best month since August 2023, and it's up from 1.21 million bpd and 1.33 million in February.

India's imports of Saudi Arabia from India are estimated at 532,000 bpd as of March. However, this number is likely to increase as more cargoes will be assessed before the end month.

In February, India imported 679,900 bpd of crude oil from Saudi Arabia. This was the lowest since August last.

Saudi Arabia's imports are likely to show a significant increase only from April, as it is the first time that OPEC+ has agreed to increase production. Also, Saudi Aramco, Saudi Arabia's state-controlled oil producer, has cut its official selling prices.

Aramco has lowered its OSP for its Arab Light Grade for Asian refiners. The premium is now $3.50 per barrel over the Middle East benchmarks of Oman and Dubai. This is the first decrease in three months.

The OSPs were lower than expected, given OPEC+’s decision to begin unwinding their output cuts.

The small increase in production won't make much of a difference to the global oil price.

What is sufficient is that Saudi Arabia wants to increase its market share through lowering OSPs while Russia appears to have worked largely around the recent sanctions.

The rapid change in U.S. foreign policy under the new president Donald Trump is likely to boost Russia's oil producers, as Trump has taken a firm stand in support of Moscow and virtually abandoned Ukraine when it comes to its fight against Russian invasion.

The data on March oil flows to Asia could be an early sign of a battle for market share, which may increase the downward pressure currently being applied to oil prices.

Brent crude futures, the global benchmark for crude oil prices, ended Monday at $69.28 per barrel. This is slightly higher than the low of $68,33 set on March 5, a four-year high.

These are the views of the columnist, an author for.

(source: Reuters)