While two U.S. carrier battle groups were patrolling the Indian Ocean in an effort to prevent Iran from attacking Israel and sparking major regional conflict this week, a different military message was being sent out in a luxurious conference centre in Manila. Every year, the U.S. Indo-Pacific Command holds its 35th annual Military Law and Operations Conference in a different part of the world. But the fact that it was held in Manila this week is not a mere coincidence. The presence of the 35th annual Military Law and Operations Conference organised by the U.S. Indo-Pacific Command in the capital of the Philippines this week was likely no coincidence.

A Filipino marine lost a thumb in June during a violent confrontation with a Chinese vessel, which involved Chinese military personnel wielding clubs and spears. A second, perhaps even more dangerous, confrontation has recently erupted near the Sabina Shoal where the BRP Teresa Magbauna - the largest ship of the Philippine Coast Guard - has been anchored for the past four months.

In the last month, there have been at least two collisions involving Chinese patrol vessels and Philippine vessels that were resupplying the Teresa Magbauna. The Philippines has also accused Chinese planes of flying dangerously near maritime patrol planes.

The U.S. Indo-Pacific Command commander, Admiral Samuel Paparo said that the U.S. is now considering accompanying Philippine vessels to resupply the two disputed shoals - a decision Beijing would most likely see as a significant escalation.

"Escorting one vessel to another is an entirely reasonable choice within our Mutual Defence Treaty. This close alliance between us allows for this," Paparo said at a press conference held with General Romeo Brawner of the Philippines. He was referring to an 1951 treaty which commits Washington in supporting Manila if its forces are attacked by armed forces.

Officials in Washington and the Philippines suspect that Beijing intends to permanently drive Philippine forces - and ideally, this year – from Second Thomas and Sabina Shoes by preventing them from mounting resupply mission.

Manila and Washington seem to be united in their belief that the Philippines shouldn't be forced into abandoning either shoal.

In the past, an aircraft carrier might have been pulled from its position on the other side of the globe to display the flag in South China Sea.

In these more difficult times, U.S. efforts might be smaller. Perhaps a frigate, destroyer, or helicopters from the U.S. could be used to deliver supplies to two Filipino vessels under siege.

According to an independent U.S. Naval Institute, the U.S. amphibious assault ships Boxer and America are currently conducting exercises and operations off Japan and the Philippines respectively. Naval Institute, U.S. amphibious attack ships Boxer (left) and America (right) are currently conducting drills and operations near Japan and the Philippines.

The U.S. Navy currently does not possess a single aircraft carriers in Asia. This is the first time since 2001 that this has happened.

U.S. officials claim that this is a temporary situation. The USS Ronald Reagan, formerly based in Japan, is being exchanged for its sister ship, George Washington. Aside from the two carriers currently in the Middle East the other are undergoing refits or training along the U.S. Atlantic and Pacific coasts.

Setting Precedent, Perception

The Biden administration went out of its way in order to create the impression that they would respond militarily if Taiwan were attacked. Beijing, however, would see the surrender of two Filipino outposts on the South China Sea in a broader sense as a sign of U.S. weakness.

The Philippines Coast Guard had to abandon its resupply mission to Sabina Shoal after Chinese vessels intercepted their vessels aggressively on Monday.

In the past decade, Manila's successive governments have announced periodic deals with Beijing regarding access to Second Thomas Shoal. However, confrontations soon followed.

Samuel Byers is a former Pentagon official who now works as a senior advisor at the Center for Maritime Strategy, Washington DC. This kind of thing sets the mentality of both adversaries and allies." U.S. officials believe that Chinese President Xi Jinping has not decided whether to invade Taiwan with military force, but he has ordered his military forces to be ready to do so as early as 2027.

Byers explained that the simultaneous crises in other parts of the world, namely the Middle East, are making U.S. military forces appear overstretched. U.S. defense secretary Lloyd Austin ordered this week that the two U.S. aircraft carriers currently in the Middle East extend their deployments. A Pentagon spokesman described it as a "clear message" that the U.S. is committed to the defence of Israel. This show of force appears to have worked - the chairman of U.S. Joint Chiefs of Staff Air Force General Charles Brown said on Wednesday that both Iran and Israel seemed to have found "off-ramps" to a face-off which had intensified after the assassination of Hamas leader Ismail Haniyeh on July 31, in Tehran. Washington, recognizing the need for tough decisions, has reduced the number of forces in the Red Sea it has kept since the end of 2023 when the USS Eisenhower battle group spent several months destroying drones and rockets launched from Yemen by Iran-backed Houthi terrorists. The battle group spent more Tomahawk missiles in the process than the U.S. army purchased for the entire year 2023.

However, the Houthi attacks have continued. U.S. Warships are no longer in close proximity, but in positions where they could strike Iran directly if a wider war broke out. The European fleet is reduced to a smaller number of warships that are assisting commercial vessels in Red Sea. One of these, the Greek tanker MV Sounion, was reported this week as leaking oil and on fire, with salvage operations complicated by further threats.

LONG TIME COMING

It was once unimaginable that the U.S. Navy would abandon its Red Sea campaign in large part.

It is not only a sign of the importance placed on deterring Iran, but it also shows that the United States has entered a new era. The United States' support for Europe is one of the most obvious casualties. In 2022 and 2023 U.S. carriers participated in NATO exercises, but none have done so this year. U.S. officials are becoming more blunt in their assertions that European nations must defend themselves, while Washington shifts focus to the Pacific.

Officials from the United States say that the "latticework of alliances" Washington has created in Asia is what is most important. This includes the ties between Japan, South Korea and Australia, as well as the Philippines, South Korea and the Philippines.

The confrontation between China and most of these countries has been long overdue.

In the past two decades, China built outposts and military bases on several islands that are disputed. This includes a large base on Mischief Reef, which is claimed by the Philippines.

The "maritime miltia" of the Philippines has been stopping foreign vessels and boats from reaching the Scarborough Shoal dispute with its patrol and fishing boats.

In a 2016 ruling, the United Nations maritime Court in The Hague classified much of the oil-rich Spratly Islands including Scarborough and Second Thomas shoals and Sabina Shoals as being part of the Philippines Exclusive Economic Zone.

China has rejected the ruling, claiming that it is entitled to jurisdiction over the majority of South China Sea within its "nine-dash line", waters it claims have been Chinese for centuries despite other nations claiming them.

Since November 2023, Philippine Warships have conducted 10 bilateral and multinational joint patrols with the United States of America, Canada, Australia, and Japan. There is talk that they may do the same thing with France.

While such patrols may have operated in areas that are contested, it would be very different to physically accompany Filipino ships through a Chinese blockade.

It is unclear whether the Philippines would actually want to take such a step. General Brawner has in the past suggested joint patrols, but this week appeared to back away from that position.

He said, "The armed forces in the Philippines...have a policy of relying on themselves first." "We will try every option, and explore all the avenues available to us, to accomplish the mission ...,, in this case the resupply of our troops. When we can't do it ourselves, we will seek out other options. (By Peter Apps, edited by Mark Heinrich).

(source: Reuters)