The first deputy minister of agriculture Taras Vysotskiy stated on Friday that Ukraine's grain exports in 2024/25 are expected to drop to 40 million metric tonnes from nearly 51 million tons in the previous year due to a smaller crop.

Vysotskiy, a national television host, said: "Due to the difficult weather conditions in 2024, the harvest is smaller. There are also no carryover stock from previous periods. Exports will be about 40 million tons."

This summer, abnormal heatwaves affected most Ukrainian regions. They reduced the yields of corn and late crops.

Vitaliy Koval, the Ukrainian farm minister, said last month that Ukraine would maintain its high exports despite a smaller crop. He added that 16.2 million tonnes of wheat and 21.75 million tons corn could be exported in 2024/25.

In 2023/24, traders exported 18,4 million tonnes of wheat and 29,4 million tons corn, partly due to the high stock levels from previous seasons. This was also because key Ukrainian seaports had been blocked by Russia during the Russian invasion.

Ukraine is one of the world's largest grain producers. Before the Russian invasion in 2022, Ukraine exported 6 million tons per month through the Black Sea. Around 85% of Ukrainian exports leave Ukraine through its Black Sea ports.

Vysotskiy stated that "this is not a volume record (of the 2024 harvest), and we are confident in existing infrastructure... to allow this volume average to be exported."

Freight

The Agriculture Ministry announced on Friday that Ukraine had exported 11,7 million tons of grain during the July-June 2024/25 season. This is up from 7,42 million tons in the same period the previous year.

The export of grain by traders has reached 1.29 million tonnes in October, compared to 667,000 tons between Oct. 1-11 last.

The available tonnage for the Black Sea/Mediterranean basin has continued to decrease for dates in October. This week, charterers faced an acute shortage of coaster vessels for spot dates.

The consultancy stated that shipowners took a "wait and see" approach to their vessel sales, refraining from putting them up for sale too soon.

However, local producers said that the increased attacks by Russia against ships transporting agricultural products to key Black Sea ports was complicating export logistics as well as affecting freight rates.

Insurance sources reported on Thursday that war premiums have risen by around 30% in the last week, to just under 1% of a vessel's value from 0.7% at the beginning of September. This would result in an additional cost of hundreds of thousands.

Ambrey, a British maritime security firm, said that vessels calling on Ukraine faced a "heightened risk" of being attacked directly by Russian forces.

On Friday, Russian ballistic missiles again attacked the Odesa area. This was the fourth attack since Sunday. (Assitional Reporting by Anastasiia Maenko; Editing by David Evans).

(source: Reuters)