The first deputy minister of agriculture Taras Vysotskiy stated on Friday that Ukraine's grain exports in 2024/25 are expected to drop to 40 million metric tonnes from nearly 51 million tons in the previous year due to a smaller crop.

Vysotskiy, a national television host, said: "Due to the difficult weather conditions in 2024, the harvest is smaller. There are also no carryover stock from previous periods. Exports will be about 40 million tons."

This summer, abnormal heatwaves affected most Ukrainian regions. They reduced the yield of late crops like corn.

Vitaliy Koval, the Ukrainian farm minister, said last month that despite a smaller crop, Ukraine would maintain its high exports. He predicted that 16.2 million tonnes of wheat and 21.75 million tons corn could be exported in 2024/25.

The high stock levels from previous years, and the Russian invasion that blocked key Ukrainian ports also contributed to the traders' exports of 18.4 million tonnes of wheat and 29,4 millions of tons of corn for 2023/24.

Ukraine is one of the world's largest grain producers. Before the Russian invasion in 2022, Ukraine exported 6 million tons per month through the Black Sea. Around 85% of Ukrainian exports leave Ukraine through its Black Sea ports.

Vysotskiy stated that "this is not a volume record (of the 2024 harvest), and we are confident in existing infrastructure... to allow this volume average to be exported."

The Agriculture Ministry announced on Friday that Ukraine had exported 11,7 million tons of grain during the July-June 2024/25 season. This is up from 7,42 million tons in the same period the previous year.

The export of grain by traders has reached 1.29 million tonnes in October, compared to 667,000 tons between Oct. 1-11 of last year.

However, local producers said that the increased attacks by Russia against ships transporting agricultural products to key Black Sea ports was complicating export logistics as well as affecting freight rates.

Insurance sources reported on Thursday that war premiums have risen by around 30% in the last week, to just under 1% of the vessel's value from 0.7% at the beginning of September. This would translate into hundreds of thousands in additional costs.

Ambrey, a British maritime security firm, said that vessels calling on Ukraine faced a "heightened risk" of being attacked directly by Russian forces.

On Friday, Russian ballistic missiles again attacked the Odesa area. This was the fourth attack since Sunday. (Assitional Reporting by Anastasiia Maenko; Editing by David Evans).

(source: Reuters)