The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration said that a developing La Nina will bring warmer and drier weather than normal to the southern and central U.S. Plains in this winter. This is likely to worsen the drought in the top winter wheat producing area of the United States, NOAA reported on Thursday.

Farmers in the United States are planting winter wheat to be harvested early next summer, amid an increasing drought that has raised concern about harvest prospects. Prices have recently risen to 3-1/2 month highs.

According to the most recent U.S. Department of Agriculture Forecast, the dryness in the Plains, and other important wheat-producing areas in the world (including top exporter Russia) will cause global supplies of this staple crop to reach their lowest level in nine years. The United States ranks fifth in the world for wheat exports.

The agency's winter weather forecast stated that "we anticipate widespread moderate to severe drought" will continue across the Great Plains, and parts of the central Rocky Mountains.

National Drought Mitigation Center (NDMC) data shows that the drought has expanded to 52% of U.S. Winter wheat areas this week, up from just 44% two weeks earlier.

NOAA reported that while the Plains will likely remain dry this winter, an wetter pattern in the Great Lakes region and the Ohio River Valley should help to boost the Mississippi River's water levels.

This could help barge shipping along the largest U.S. grain export corridor, after historically low water levels disrupted crop movements for a third consecutive harvest season.

Gottschalck stated that "that will be very beneficial for the Mississippi River in its entirety because a significant fraction of this (water) is from the Ohio River, and the central Mississippi River Valley."

NOAA data predicts that the Mississippi River in Memphis, Tennessee will recede to a depth of less than three feet from its all-time record low, set one year ago.

(source: Reuters)