Potential Tropical Cyclone One Interim Advisory Number 1A

NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL Al012024

700 PM CDT Mon Jun 17 2024

...SYSTEM TO CAUSE HEAVY RAINS, COASTAL FLOODS AND OTHER DISASTERS

IN NORTHEASTERN Mexico AND TEXAS BEGINNING ON TUESDAY...

INFORMATION ABOUT 700 PM CDT...0000 UT...

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LOCATION...20.5N 93.0W

About 375 miles...620 km SE of LA PESCA Mexico

ABOUT 465 KM...750 KM SE BROWNSVILLE TEXAS

MAXIMUM MAINTENANCE WINDS...40 MPH...65 K/H

PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW...345 DEGREES...7 MPH...11KM/H

MINIMUM CENTRAL SPRESSURE...999 Mb...29.50 Inches

WATCHES and WARNINGS

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Changes with this Advisory:

Summary of WARNINGS and WATCHES in Effect:

A Tropical Storm Watch has been issued for... *The Texas coast south of Port O'Connor to the mouth the Rio Grande.

Rio Grande * The coast of Mexico on the northeastern side, south of the mouth.

Grande to Boca de Catan.

Tropical Storm Watches are issued when tropical storm conditions are imminent.

Generally, within 48 hours.

Find out about the storms that affect your region in the United States

Please list all states, and any possible inland warnings or watches.

Monitor products issued by the National Weather Service in your area

Forecast office. Storm information for your specific area

Please monitor the products released by

Your national weather service

DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK

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The disturbance began at 700 PM CDT (0000 UTC)

centered near latitude 20.5 North, longitude 93.0 West. The system

This is moving towards the north-northwest at a speed of about 7 mph (11km/h).

General motion is expected to continue until Tuesday. Turn

On Tuesday or Wednesday night, a storm system is expected to move toward the west-northwest.

The system is expected to reach the western Gulf Coast late

Wednesday.

Winds are still nearing 40 mph (65km/h).

gusts. Forecasts predict that the disturbance will become a tropical cyclone

by Wednesday. * Chances of formation through 48 hours...high...80 per cent. * Formation chances through 7 days...high...80 per cent.

Tropical-storm force winds are present in the disturbance.

Extending outwards up to 290 mile (465 km) in the northeast

center.

The estimated minimum pressure central is 999 mb (30.50 inches).

Based on Air Force Reserve droponde data.

HAZARDS TO LAND

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The key messages for a potential tropical cyclone one can be found on the

Tropical Cyclone Discussion Under AWIPS Head MIATCDAT1

Header WTNT41KNHC

RAINFALL - Potential Tropical Cyclone One will produce rainfall

Rainfall totals between 5 and 10 inches in northeast Mexico

This area of Texas can receive up to 15 inches. This

Rainfall will likely cause flash flooding and urban flooding.

River flooding is a constant threat. Mudslides can also occur in

Northeast Mexico has areas of higher terrain.

To get a full picture of the forecast rainfall and flash floods

Please see the following for information about Potential Tropical Cyclone 1.

National Weather Service Storm Total rainfall graphic, available at

hurricanes.gov/graphics_at1.shtml?rainqpf and the Flash Flood Risk

graphic at hurricanes.gov/graphics_at1.shtml?ero

Storm surge is the combination of a dangerous storm and a high tide.

The tide will flood normally dry areas along the coast

The water could move inland by moving up from the shoreline. The water could

The following heights are indicated.

If the peak surge is at high tide, then the area will be affected.

Sargent, TX - Sabine Pass (TX)...2-4 ft

Galveston Bay...2-4 feet

Sargent, TX to the mouth of the Rio Grande...1-3 ft

Sabine Pass, TX - Vermilion/Cameron Parish Line (LA)...1-3 ft

The water level will be highest along the coast, especially near the shore.

The surge will occur to the north of where the landfall is located.

Large and dangerous waves are often present. Flooding caused by surges

The relative timing of the tide cycle and the surge will determine the amount of water that is deposited.

Short distances can have a large impact on the speed of light. Information

Please see the products that are issued in your area.

National Weather Service Forecast Office

To see the complete area at risk from storm surge

Please see the National Weather Service Peak for more information on inundation.

Storm Surge Graphic is available at

hurricanes.gov/graphics_at1.shtml?peakSurge.

Minor coastal flooding can occur in Mexico north of the area where the coastline begins.

The center of the disturbance crosses areas of onshore coastline

winds.

WIND: Tropical Storm conditions are possible in the watch area

Area by Wednesday

Next Advisory

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Continue with the next advisory at 1000 PM CDT.