Potential Tropical Cyclone One Warning Number 1

NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL Al012024

400 PM CDT Mon Jun 17 2024

Low pressure area expected to bring rains over the Bay of Campeche

Heavy Rainfall Threatens Parts of the Western Gulf Coast...

...TROPICAL STORM WORRAY ISSUED FOR PARTS of the COAST OF TEXAS

N.-E. Mexico

INFORMATION - 400 PM CDT...2100 UT...SUMMARY

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LOCATION...20.3N 93.2W

About 380 mi...615 km SE of LA PESCA Mexico

ABOUT 470 KM...755 KM SE BROWNSVILLE TEXAS

MAXIMUM MAINTENANCE WINDS...40 KM/H...65 KM/H

PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW...345 DEGREES...7 MPH...11KM/H

MINIMUM CENTRAL SPRESSURE...1001 Mb...29.56 Inches

WATCHES and WARNINGS

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Changes with this Advisory:

Tropical Storm Watches have been issued along the Texas coast.

Port O'Connor to the mouth Rio Grande.

The Mexican government has issued a Tropical Storm Watch for the

The northeastern coast south of Rio Grande

to Boca de Catan.

Interests along the coasts and in the northeastern part of Texas

Mexico should monitor this system's progress. Additional

Watches and warnings could be needed tonight and Tuesday.

Summary of WATCHES and WARNINGS in Effect:

A Tropical Storm Watch has been issued for... *The Texas coast south of Port O'Connor to the mouth the Rio Grande.

Rio Grande * The coast of Mexico on the northeastern side, south of the mouth.

Grande to Boca de Catan.

Tropical Storm Watches are issued when tropical storm conditions are imminent.

Generally, 48 hours is the maximum time that can be expected within the watch zone.

Find out about the storms that affect your region in the United States

Please list all states, and any possible inland warnings or watches.

Monitor products issued by the National Weather Service in your area

Forecast office. Storm information for your specific area

Please monitor the products released by

Your national weather service

DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK

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The disturbance was located near latitude at 400 PM CDT (2100 GMT).

20.3 North, longitude 93.2 West. The system is moving towards the

This general motion is north-northwest at 7 mph (11km/h).

Expected to continue until Tuesday. The turn towards the

The system is expected to move westward Tuesday or Wednesday night.

The western Gulf Coast is expected to be affected by the storm that will arrive late on Wednesday.

The maximum sustained wind speed is near 40 mph with gusts higher.

The disturbance may be accompanied by a slow strengthening.

Forecast to become a Tropical Storm by Wednesday. * Chance of formation through 48 hours...high...70% * Formation chances through 7 days...high...70%

Tropical-storm force winds are present in the disturbance.

Extending outwards up to 290 mile (465 km) in the northeast

center.

The minimum estimated central pressure is 1001 mb (29.56 inches).

HAZARDS TO LAND

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The key messages for a potential tropical cyclone one can be found on the

Discussion of Tropical Cyclones under AWIPS MIATCDAT1 header and WMO

Header WTNT41KNHC

RAINFALL - Potential Tropical Cyclone One expected to

Produce rainfall totals between 5 and 10 inches in northeast Mexico

This is the maximum amount of snow that can be expected in South Texas. This

Rainfall will likely cause flash flooding and urban flooding.

River flooding is a constant threat. Mudslides can also occur in

Northeast Mexico has areas of higher terrain.

To get a full picture of the forecast rainfall and flash floods

Please see the following for information about Potential Tropical Cyclone 1.

National Weather Service Storm Total rainfall graphic, available at

hurricanes.gov/graphics_at1.shtml?rainqpf and the Flash Flood Risk

graphic at hurricanes.gov/graphics_at1.shtml?ero

Storm surge is the combination of a dangerous storm and a high tide.

The tide will flood normally dry areas along the coast

The water could move inland by moving up from the shoreline. The water could

The following heights are indicated.

If the peak surge is at high tide, then the area will be affected.

Sargent, TX - Sabine Pass (TX)...2-4 ft

Galveston Bay...2-4 feet

Sargent, TX to the mouth of the Rio Grande...1-3 ft

Sabine Pass, TX - Vermilion/Cameron Parish Line (LA)...1-3 ft

The water level will be highest along the coast, especially near and to

The surge will occur to the north of where the landfall is located.

Large and dangerous waves are often present. Flooding caused by surges

The relative timing of the tide cycle and the surge will determine the amount of water that is deposited.

Short distances can have a large impact on the speed of light. Information

Please see the products that are issued in your area.

National Weather Service Forecast Office

To see the complete area at risk from storm surge

Please see the National Weather Service Peak for more information on inundation.

Storm Surge Graphic is available at

hurricanes.gov/graphics_at1.shtml?peakSurge.

Minor coastal flooding can occur in Mexico north of the area where the coastline begins.

The center of the disturbance crosses areas of the onshore coast

winds.

Tropical Storm conditions may be possible in the watch area

Area by Wednesday

Next Advisory

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Continue with the next advisory at 1000 PM CDT.