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EU Wheat remains weak as Black Sea Competition hangs over the market

Posted to Maritime Reporter on October 23, 2024

The benchmark wheat futures traded on Euronext declined for the fourth time on Wednesday, as traders weighed up signs of continued export competition by Black Sea wheat supplies against uncertainty about Russian government interventions in wheat trade.

The December wheat contract, which is the most actively traded on Paris' Euronext exchange, fell 0.5% to 222.50 euro ($239.88), per metric tonne, at 1544 GMT.

Traders said that it had fallen to 221.00 euro, its lowest level since October 1 and slightly lower than a previous low of three weeks on Tuesday. However, a weaker euro and the chart floor at 220 Euros provided support.

One German trader stated that the market was looking to see if the Russian minimum export price of $245 or $250 per ton FOB would be followed, or if it will be evaded.

Most published price lists hold at this level, but realistic levels of the market are around $234-$238.

According to traders, Russian wheat prices remained lower than those of western Europe, while Ukrainian wheat prices were also lower.

Weather concerns have also eased, as parched Black Sea wheat belts, Argentine, and U.S. wheat areas received some rain, while wet fields in Western Europe are set to dry up by the end of the month.

A German analyst has said that repeated rains in Germany over the past few weeks have disrupted some winter sowings of rapeseed and wheat, but this is not a serious problem on a national level.

The analyst stated that "it's an inconvenience and some areas are visible which have not been sown yet with wheat."

There is still time for catching up. I believe Germany could sow as much as 2.8 million acres of wheat in the fall.

The wheat area in Germany for the summer crop was reduced by rain to 2.6 million ha.

Euronext published data on Wednesday showing that financial investors have increased their net short positions in Euronext Wheat. ($1 = 0.9276 euro) (Reporting and editing by Maju Sam in Hamburg, Michael Hogan in Paris)

(source: Reuters)

Tags: North America Europe Western Europe

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