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EU wheat declines from 3-week high as Chicago rally stalls

Posted to Maritime Reporter on September 5, 2024

Euronext Wheat Futures fell on Thursday, after reaching a three-week high. A rally to cover shorts in Chicago failed and the competition from Black Sea wheat supplies was still strong.

December wheat, which was the most active position on Paris' Euronext exchange, ended 0.9% lower at 218.50 Euros ($242.56) a metric ton. This marked an end to a seven-day streak of gains.

The contract had climbed earlier to 222.25 euro, just above the previous three-weeks high set on Wednesday. However, like the day before it failed to break through chart resistance at around 220 euro.

Investors are now focusing on the U.S. employment data due out Friday.

There are questions about the durability of this rally. Black Sea prices are not following, but will continue to be a barometer of cheap global exports. If demand waned or stayed away from the U.S. the market was open to a bout profit-taking, according to British merchant ADM Agriculture in a recent note.

On Thursday, Russian 12.5% protein was quoted at around $215-$217 per ton FOB in September/October for Black Sea shipment. Russian 11.5% protein was quoted as $208-$212 per ton FOB in September, and Ukrainian at around $210-216.

One German trader stated, "Some wonder if the recent Euronext price increases can withstand the intense competition on export markets coming from the Black Sea."

"Despite concerns about poor harvest weather, Russian export shipments are still very large and expected to continue being big for the remainder of September."

The competition from cheaper Black Sea products has diverted attention away from the poor harvests of western Europe.

Growers group AGPB reported that the French rain-hit harvest produced 25,98 million tons of soft wheat, down by 26% compared to last year. This figure is in line with most other estimates, which place the output at its lowest level since the 1980s.

Oilseeds: Rapeseed ended November on Euronext 1.5% higher at 473.50 Euros a ton after reaching a month-high, while Canadian canola stabilized following losses last week caused by a Chinese antidumping probe. $1 = 0.9008 Euros (Reporting from Gus Trompiz and Michael Hogan, Hamburg; editing by David Evans).

(source: Reuters)

Tags: North America Europe Western Europe

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