As U.S. President Donald Trump’s tariffs begin to take effect, there are new questions about the sale of nuclear submarines to Australia as part of the AUKUS Treaty. Washington is also concerned that the sale to Canberra could reduce the deterrence against China.

After talks with Pete Hegseth, the U.S. counterpart to Richard Marles, Australia's Defence Minister, said that if the United States is able to boost submarine production in order to meet U.S. Navy goals, Australia will be able to buy three Virginia class submarines beginning in 2032.

Australia has a 2025 deadline, previously unknown, to pay $2 billion to the United States to help improve its submarine shipyards. Marles stated in March that the Trump administration had requested more funding.

Experts and documents indicate that Washington is becoming increasingly concerned that Australia's unwillingness to discuss the use of attack submarines in China would mean that the transfer of these subs from the U.S. to Australia could harm deterrence in the Indo Pacific.

The Australian Defence Force is being advised by former U.S. Navy Strategist Bryan Clark of the Hudson Institute's Center for Defense Concepts and Technology on force design.

Clark, the man who led the exercise, explained that in a recent multilateral wargame simulating the response of U.S. allies against a Chinese blockade on Taiwan, Australian Defence Force Commanders didn't use nuclear submarines to attack Chinese targets but instead focused on protecting Australia’s northern approaches using airpower, drones, and missiles.

Clark stated in an online briefing that the distance between China and Australia made an airpower or surface fleet approach to China less risky. The submarines, instead, were placed in areas close to Australia where enemy vessels might transit.

The concerns expressed in the U.S. Congressional Budget Office's report of February, and in testimony about Navy shipbuilding delays given in March by officials who said that selling Virginia-class submarines to Australia without replacing them was risky as Canberra hadn't made it clear if its military would be joining the U.S. for a conflict in Taiwan.

The U.S. Navy set an October 2027 deadline for the preparation of its forces for a war with China.

The Chinese Foreign Ministry did not respond immediately to a comment request.

Peter Dean, director of the United States Studies Centre at the University of Sydney, who is responsible for foreign policy and defense, said that he expected Australia and the United States would operate submarines in separate areas during a conflict in the region.

If it's an emergency situation involving Taiwan, the U.S. would concentrate its forces around Taiwan in the East and South China Sea. Dean, coauthor of Australia's Defence Strategic Review and co-author Dean said that Australia might not be directly involved. This led the Albanese Government to refocus their military in 2023, prioritising long-range missiles.

He said that Australia's top priority was to protect the mainland of Australia as an forward operating base for U.S. troops.

Clark said that the lack of nuclear workers and budget constraints in Australia will most likely delay submarine sales.

He said that "U.S., UK, and Australian submarines with dual crews operating from Perth, as well as the Australian-operated facility, would act as a deterrent against aggression and help Australia to prepare for its nuclear submarines." He also advised Canberra that it should focus on uncrewed system.

The Australian Submarine Agency stated that acquiring nuclear subs was an important part of Australia's denial strategy. They will be "equipped for intelligence, surveillance and undersea war and strike missions".

A Pentagon spokesperson said the Defense Department was committed to "our phased plan for Australia to acquire conventionally-armed, nuclear-powered submarines at the earliest possible date", including the sale of Virginia submarines. A spokesman for the U.S. National Security Council said that "the U.S. continues working closely with Australia and UK to implement AUKUS".

AUKUS could be affected by domestic politics, despite the strong support of the major Australian political parties. The disappointment that Australia was not exempted from Trump's tariffs due to defence ties has brought the program under unprecedented scrutiny.

The May 3 national election could lead to a hung Parliament, giving independent lawmakers more power. These legislators are skeptical of Trump and want a review of his submarine deal.

AUKUS will span over three decades. A rotating force of Virginia subs commanded by the U.S., and one British sub commanded by Britain and Australia hosted at Western Australia’s HMAS Stirling in 2027 with a mix of U.S. maintenance and Australian crew. The sale of Virginia Submarines to Australian Command in 2032. And an AUKUS built submarine ready in 2040.

Dean stated that Australia must buy the Virginias, as relying on an American-commanded fleet up until 2040 would "outsource our defence to a country at a level which is not acceptable."

In an interview, Scott Morrison, the former prime minister who signed the AUKUS Treaty in 2021 said that the agreement was a result of the threat from China and Australia's nuclear submarines operating in the South China Sea or Indian Ocean.

Morrison stated that "China is a threat, and they must be stopped."

He added, "We always knew the idea of having more U.S. boats and more British ships in Australia and around Australia and also on station there, as well as in the theater, would be a deterrent."

Labor added Australia's plans to buy Virginia submarines to AUKUS in 2023.

Anthony Albanese, the Labor prime minister who will be elected in 2022 has shown less willingness to criticise China publicly, despite Australia's airforce and navy continuing freedom of navigation patrols on the South China Sea. Peter Dutton of the Liberal Party, who served as defence minister under Morrison, has used this issue in his election campaign.

Arthur Sinodonis said that the Chinese were very keen for us to not proceed with AUKUS because they understood its deterrent effect. This was during AUKUS' negotiations in Washington. "There's a deterrent whether it's in the U.S. or Australian column."

(source: Reuters)