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Asia spot prices at 6-month high due to hot weather

Posted to Maritime Reporter on June 7, 2024

The Asian spot LNG prices were stable this week. They held near their six-month high due to the higher demand for gas as a power source in India and East Asia, and because of the expected temperatures above normal in China by mid-June.

Average LNG price for July deliveries into North-east Asia Industry sources estimate that the price of electricity was $12.00 per million British Thermal Units (mmBtu), which is unchanged from the previous weeks and near its highest level since mid-December.

"We are now seeing some sort of LNG draw from Europe, as Asian demand is still robust. "Fortunately, there are high storage levels in Europe, so large imports will not be needed immediately," said Siamak Adibi of energy consultancy FGE.

Samuel Good, the head of LNG prices at commodity pricing agency Argus, stated that Asian markets initially benefited from European gas supply concerns. However, they have largely maintained their gains, as buyers in Japan and South Korea showed an increased interest.

Rystad Energy data revealed that the Japan Meteorological Agency predicts a 50.6% chance of an above-normal temperature between June and August. This could increase gas-for power demand.

Good stated that more Atlantic LNG was being shipped to Asia. The open inter-basin arbitration suggests a strong incentive for this trend to continue.

Gas prices in Europe rose 11.4% Monday, reaching a six-month-high, due to concerns about the Norwegian supply, caused by an unplanned outage of Gassco's Nyhamna plant.

S&P Global Commodity Insights estimated its daily North West Europe (NWM) LNG Marker price benchmark on a basis of ex-ship (DES), for cargoes to be delivered in July at $10.543/mmBtu, on June 6. This represents a $0.75/mmBtu reduction from the gas price for July at the Dutch TTF Hub.

Spark Commodities set the price for July at $10.450/mmBtu while Argus put it at $10.450/mmBtu.

S&P data shows that on June 3, the NWM was valued at $11.397/mmBtu - the highest price since December 8.

The price of gas for power in the United States has risen due to high temperatures in Southwest, despite a temporary drop in production.

The sharp rise in gas prices on all markets last week is a sign of global vulnerability. "...and highlight how interconnected gas imbalances can be," said Rystad Analyst Christoph Halser.

Adibi, of FGE, said that while demand for LNG is high in Asia and Middle East but supply is low.

When we examine production performance, the results are concerning. He said that the ongoing problems in Freeport and Egypt, as well as the (Russian Arctic 2) shipping issues, inability to load goods, and other unplanned outages are very troubling.

The LNG freight rate in the Atlantic increased by a significant amount for the third week running, reaching $57,000/day last Friday. Spark Commodities analyst Qasim Afghan said that the Pacific rates were unchanged at $45,250/day. (Reporting and editing by Sriraj Kalluvila; Marwa Rashad)